SAR 8/28

[Melniko]

Already 180 entries into today's $12 (Race 3-10) HT tourney - gotta take a shot as there is still an hour to go. Here's what I like...

R3 - #1,1A entry (3-1) I don't see any natural front-runners in here, meaning MISSPELLED MOON could, and should, make the lead. If she can't hang on, the entry mate, STUCK ON KITTEN will be in the perfect spot to pounce.

R4 - #6 BOLD LOOKER (6-1) While I think the #2 is the winner, he'll probably be in the neighborhood of 8-5. Not worth a tourney play. The #6 just seemed to glide around the 'Toga track when first trying two turns. Comes back today under T-Gaff and will get a sharper pace to run into. Won't surprise me to see him storming home.

R5 - #3 HIDDEN ENEMY (12-1) This is where I always seem to run into trouble. I look at the superior breeding, the improving Beyer numbers, and the trainer and I think, "hmm, 12-1, sure seems too good to be true". Meanwhile, I ignore the fact he's 1 for 16 lifetime and 0 for 4 at The Spa. But, nevertheless, I'm a stubborn old geezer.

R6 - #9 LOVE TO SHOP (7-2) Love the workouts, love that Irad is aboard, and love that Violence is a great sire for first-timers.

R7 - #9 WEEKEND FUN (10-1) The addition of blinkers tells me she's going for the ol' crossover move from the outside post. If the #5 doesn't push her, she could wire this field.

R8 - #9 OHTWOOHTHREEFIVE (10-1) WIT is soo much the class of this field. The only way he loses is if he gets hit by lightning in the starting gate. I'm hoping for a decent place pay here as #9 has never been worse than 2nd going a mile and will be ignored at the windows.

R9 - #6 TRAVEL COLUMN (12-1) Why is she the longest price in the field? Blistering work seven days ago says she's fit, she's got 2 Gr II wins in her resume, and let me tell you - that Fairgrounds Oaks win was impressive on a course that's notoriously biased against frontrunners. I can't wait to watch this race - WIDE open affair.

R10 -#3 OUTLAW KID (12-1) He's been up at Saratoga all summer training for today and, if he's ready, is sure to flash speed with the switch to grass. Finishing the day with another Violence offspring.

8 races, 5 double-digit odds selections. I may just finish in last place. Or....

 

[Michelangelo]

3 - #1,1A entry (3-1) I don't see any natural front-runners in here, meaning MISSPELLED MOON could, and should, make the lead. If she can't hang on, the entry mate, STUCK ON KITTEN will be in the perfect spot to pounce.

R8 - #9 OHTWOOHTHREEFIVE (10-1) WIT is soo much the class of this field. The only way he loses is if he gets hit by lightning in the starting gate. I'm hoping for a decent place pay here as #9 has never been worse than 2nd going a mile and will be ignored at the windows.

Not sure how everything ran in between but you nailed these two, Niko. Hope you used that 20-1 horse with the fav.

Good to see you posting again. I need someone here to steady my wobbly handicapping.

 

[MrGandT]

Nice write ups Mel; I’m with you in the Bellerina ; Mott has three runners going against CeCe. Ex 6/1,2 and Tri 6/1,2,4/1,2,4

 

[Michelangelo]

R10 -#3 OUTLAW KID (12-1) He's been up at Saratoga all summer training for today and, if he's ready, is sure to flash speed with the switch to grass. Finishing the day with another Violence offspring.

Woo hoo!!!

25-1!!!

 

[Michelangelo]

R10 -#3 OUTLAW KID (12-1) He's been up at Saratoga all summer training for today and, if he's ready, is sure to flash speed with the switch to grass. Finishing the day with another Violence offspring.

Woo hoo!!!

25-1!!!

Great handicapping< Niko. Did you win your tourney?

 

[Jack1999]

Great handicapping< Niko. Did you win your tourney?

Good effort Mel I see you placed high up up on the leaderboard. Won over $100. Good going.

 

[Melniko]

Had a very good day overall, thanks for the kind words guys.
Finished in 5th place out of 254.

 

[Michelangelo]

Fifth place out of 254 is tremendous. But it only pays $100??? That's crazy. Should be a lot more than that.

 

[Jack1999]

Fifth place out of 254 is tremendous. But it only pays $100??? That's crazy. Should be a lot more than that.

1st: $1,061.92
2nd: $424.77
3rd: $212.38
4th: $159.29
5th: $132.74
6th: $106.19
7th: $92.92
8th: $79.64
9th: $66.37
10th: $53.10
11th: $39.82
12th: $39.82
13th: $26.55
14th: $26.55
15th: $26.55
16th: $26.55
17th: $13.27
18th: $13.27
19th: $13.27
20th: $13.27
21st: $6.64
22nd: $6.64
23rd: $6.64
24th: $6.64

 

[skoda]

what did 1st and other spots pay. looks like lottery the bookie always wins. example in Kentucky a pick 3 pays $300 in Pa. it pays $250.

 

[Melniko]

what did 1st and other spots pay. looks like lottery the bookie always wins. example in Kentucky a pick 3 pays $300 in Pa. it pays $250.

1st paid $1,061
The tourney's have a 12.9% rake.

 

[skoda]

Thanks what's entry fee? Top 10 or 20 get paid?? Thanks again

 

[Jack1999]

Thanks what's entry fee? Top 10 or 20 get paid?? Thanks again

$12 entry fee for that game See post #9 in this thread and you can see the prize breakdown.

 

[Jack1999]

1-14	1	100%	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
15-24	2	70%	30%	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
25-34	3	60%	25%	15%	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
35-44	4	55%	25%	15%	5%	-	-	-	-	-	-
45-54	5	50%	20%	15%	10%	5%	-	-	-	-	-
55-64	6	45%	20%	15%	10%	6.5%	3.5%	-	-	-	-
65-74	7	45%	20%	13%	9%	5.5%	4%	3.5%	-	-	-
75-84	8	45%	20%	12%	8%	5%	4%	3%	3%	-	-
85-94	9	42.5%	20%	11%	8%	5%	4%	3.5%	3%	3%	-
95-100+	10	40%	20%	10%	7%	5%	4.5%	4%	3.5%	3%	3%

 

[Jack1999]

Fifth place out of 254 is tremendous. But it only pays $100??? That's crazy. Should be a lot more than that.

3-5	6-10	11-20	21-30	31-40	41-60	61-80	81-100	101-150	151-200	201-250	251-300	301-500
1	100%	70%	70%	50%	50%	50%	50%	45%	45%	40%	40%	40%	40%
2		30%	20%	35%	25%	20%	20%	20%	18%	16%	16%	16%	16%
3			10%	15%	15%	15%	12%	12%	10%	10%	8%	8%	8%
4					10%	10%	7.5%	7.5%	7%	6%	6%	6%	6%
5						5%	6%	6%	5%	5%	5%	5%	5%
6							3%	4.5%	3.5%	4.5%	4.5%	4%	3%
7							1.5%	3.5%	3%	4%	4%	3.5%	2.5%
8								1.5%	2.5%	3.5%	3.5%	3%	2.5%
9									2%	2.5%	2.5%	2.5%	2%
10									1.5%	2%	2%	2%	1.5%
11									1.5%	1.5%	1.5%	1.5%	1.5%
12									1%	1.5%	1.5%	1.5%	1.5%
13										1.5%	1%	1%	1%
14										1%	1%	1%	1%

 

[Jack1999]

Hey Michel the prize breakdown on the HT Games are similar to what the breakdown is in the RX Westgate Contest. Post #14 is the Westgame game and post #15 is the HT Breakdown.

 

[Michelangelo]

Hey Michel the prize breakdown on the HT Games are similar to what the breakdown is in the RX Westgate Contest. Post #14 is the Westgame game and post #15 is the HT Breakdown.

Thanks for the breakdowns, Jack.

I guess I'm not considring that the entry fee is only $12.00. That makes for a paltry payout at 5%.

That's a very tough contest to get the top prize. Very, very tough.

Are there like $100.00 entry fees? Does that limit the competition? 240 is a lot of people to beat for the top prize.

 

[Jack1999]

Thanks for the breakdowns, Jack.

I guess I'm not considring that the entry fee is only $12.00. That makes for a paltry payout at 5%.

That's a very tough contest to get the top prize. Very, very tough.

Are there like $100.00 entry fees? Does that limit the competition? 240 is a lot of people to beat for the top prize.

yeah all depends. the higher the buy in the more sharks swimming around IMO. But of course less players easier to score in a way.

 

[yesyes]

Already 180 entries into today's $12 (Race 3-10) HT tourney - gotta take a shot as there is still an hour to go. Here's what I like...

R3 - #1,1A entry (3-1) I don't see any natural front-runners in here, meaning MISSPELLED MOON could, and should, make the lead. If she can't hang on, the entry mate, STUCK ON KITTEN will be in the perfect spot to pounce.

R4 - #6 BOLD LOOKER (6-1) While I think the #2 is the winner, he'll probably be in the neighborhood of 8-5. Not worth a tourney play. The #6 just seemed to glide around the 'Toga track when first trying two turns. Comes back today under T-Gaff and will get a sharper pace to run into. Won't surprise me to see him storming home.

R5 - #3 HIDDEN ENEMY (12-1) This is where I always seem to run into trouble. I look at the superior breeding, the improving Beyer numbers, and the trainer and I think, "hmm, 12-1, sure seems too good to be true". Meanwhile, I ignore the fact he's 1 for 16 lifetime and 0 for 4 at The Spa. But, nevertheless, I'm a stubborn old geezer.

R6 - #9 LOVE TO SHOP (7-2) Love the workouts, love that Irad is aboard, and love that Violence is a great sire for first-timers.

R7 - #9 WEEKEND FUN (10-1) The addition of blinkers tells me she's going for the ol' crossover move from the outside post. If the #5 doesn't push her, she could wire this field.

R8 - #9 OHTWOOHTHREEFIVE (10-1) WIT is soo much the class of this field. The only way he loses is if he gets hit by lightning in the starting gate. I'm hoping for a decent place pay here as #9 has never been worse than 2nd going a mile and will be ignored at the windows.

R9 - #6 TRAVEL COLUMN (12-1) Why is she the longest price in the field? Blistering work seven days ago says she's fit, she's got 2 Gr II wins in her resume, and let me tell you - that Fairgrounds Oaks win was impressive on a course that's notoriously biased against frontrunners. I can't wait to watch this race - WIDE open affair.

R10 -#3 OUTLAW KID (12-1) He's been up at Saratoga all summer training for today and, if he's ready, is sure to flash speed with the switch to grass. Finishing the day with another Violence offspring.

8 races, 5 double-digit odds selections. I may just finish in last place. Or....

Great job Mel
Big day for you